Keep this next to Yahoo on draft night. It watches who's gone and tells you who to take.
Reopen this any time from the ? button. · What the numbers mean, and proof it works
It was tested, not assumed. The identical model was rebuilt using only information that existed before Week 1 of 2025 — 2024 stats, August 2025 depth charts, 2025 preseason ADP — then asked to project 2025. Graded against what players actually scored in CDL rules:
| Rank correlation with reality | board +0.59 vs market ADP +0.48 |
| Average rank error | board 40.8 vs market ADP 45.7 |
| Top-36 hit rate | board 61% vs market ADP 47% |
Where the edge comes from: the board knows what a point is worth in this league — 6-point passing TDs, a full point per reception, 6 for a 50-yard field goal, yards-allowed tiers stacked on points-allowed. Market ADP is priced for standard scoring. Where the market is still better is ranking players within one position, because it hears camp news the numbers cannot see. So 25% of the within-position order is borrowed from the market — that weight was chosen by backtest, not by taste. The EDGE column shows you every place the two disagree.
State auto-saves to this browser. Refresh mid-draft and nothing is lost.